Post-bloom apple chemical thinning relies on the application of plant bioregulators to induce fruitlet abscission, reducing crop load to improve fruit quality and promote return bloom. Abscission rates following chemical thinner application are influenced by carbohydrate status of the tree and thus widely variable. Multiple applications are often needed for growers to reach a desired crop load. However, trees are only perceptive to chemical thinners for a 3 to 4 week period shortly after bloom. Rapid prediction of chemical thinner efficacy is critical to allow growers to make necessary applications in this narrow period of time without the risk of over-thinning. In 2021 and 2022 a predictive model using reflectance spectroscopy measured with a handheld spectrometer (Felix F-750; Felix Instruments; Camas, WA, USA) was developed to predict chemical thinner efficacy for ‘Honeycrisp’ in North Carolina, USA. This model was found to predict chemical thinner efficacy with greater than 85% accuracy as early 3 days following a chemical thinner application. In 2023 and 2024 validation of this model occurred on multiple cultivars: ‘Red Delicious’, ‘Granny Smith’, ‘Gala’, and ‘Fuji’; and in multiple growing regions: Michigan, New York, and North Carolina, USA. Performance of the developed model to predict chemical thinning efficacy in this wide range of situations will be discussed to determine commercial applicability of the model.
