Phenological models use local temperature data to predict spring flower bud development and guide management decisions in temperate fruit crops. In high elevation continental regions such as the U.S. Intermountain West, changing climate brings more extreme temperature variability resulting in increased risk of spring freeze damage. We evaluated bloom dates of tart cherry (Prunus cerasus L. ‘Montmorency’) in a high elevation continental climate (1327 to 1484 m elevation, Utah) to test the validity of 50-year-old phenological models under current climatic conditions. Mature commercial tart cherry blocks were selected in proximity to existing weather stations (climate.usu.edu, FGNet). Bud stages were observed weekly in April and May of 2019 through 2023 with 3 to 8 locations monitored per year. Observed stages were compared to Utah Standard and Modified prediction models. Prediction error varied with year and stage of development, where 2023 bloom was on average 3 days earlier than predicted, compared to 2020 when bloom was 6 days later than predicted. Modern weather stations provide more detailed climatic data (hourly temperature, light, humidity, wind speed), and the opportunity to refine and improve existing models. Improved model reliability would provide better decision support for increasingly expensive freeze protection measures.
